{"id":13825,"date":"2017-09-27T08:05:25","date_gmt":"2017-09-27T15:05:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/?p=13825"},"modified":"2017-09-27T08:28:53","modified_gmt":"2017-09-27T15:28:53","slug":"potential-la-nina-conditions-may-signal-dry-california-winter-from-discover-magazine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2017\/09\/27\/potential-la-nina-conditions-may-signal-dry-california-winter-from-discover-magazine\/","title":{"rendered":"Potential La Ni\u00f1a conditions may signal dry California winter – from Discover Magazine"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"La<\/a><\/p>\n

This animation shows how temperatures at the surface and subsurface of the tropical Pacific ocean departed from average over five-day periods starting in early August 2017. The vertical axis shows the depth below the surface in meters. The cross-section is right along the equator. Note the blue blob indicative of relatively cool water rising from the depths and spreading eastward. (Source: NOAA ENSO Blog)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

By Tom Yulsman<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here we go again?<\/p>\n

Following\u00a0a mild and short-lived La Ni\u00f1a episode in 2016\/2017, the climatic phenomenon stands a 55 to 60 percent chance of developing once again this fall and winter. That\u2019s\u00a0the most recent\u00a0forecast<\/a>\u00a0from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.<\/p>\n

Based on observations of what\u2019s happening in the Pacific Ocean, and modeling to\u00a0predict what may be coming, NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center has issued a\u00a0La Ni\u00f1a watch<\/a>, indicating that conditions are favorable for\u00a0its development.<\/p>\n

La Ni\u00f1a\u00a0can strongly shift weather patterns,\u00a0bringing\u00a0anomalously cool or warm, and wet or dry, conditions to\u00a0large parts of the world. In the United States, La Ni\u00f1a tends to bring wetter than normal conditions to the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest.\u00a0Unfortunately for southern and central California, things tend to dry out.<\/span><\/p>\n

A number of factors have climatologists convinced that La Ni\u00f1a is brewing again. Among them are changes to Pacific Ocean trade winds.But it\u2019s important to note that with La Ni\u00f1a or its opposite, El Ni\u00f1o, for that matter, (you can never be sure about the outcome). For example, last winter, despite the presence of La Ni\u00f1a,\u00a0incredibly heavy precipitation\u00a0drenched large parts of California. This was thanks to another phenomenon, known as the \u201cpineapple express<\/a>\u201c.<\/p>\n

These ordinarily blow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific, helping to bottle up warm surface waters in the western part of the ocean basin. As a La Ni\u00f1a episode gets going, those winds tend to strengthen,\u00a0shoving even harder on warm surface waters, pushing them out of the way, and thereby allowing cooler water to well up from the ocean depths.<\/p>\n

This is precisely what began to happen during August. At about 160\u00a0to 500 feet\u00a0beneath the surface of the Pacific, a blob of\u00a0cooler-than-average water\u00a0formed and began rising and spreading to the east along the equator.<\/p>\n

You can see this blob, called a \u201ckelvin wave,\u201d in the animation at the top of this story. The visualization depicts a cross-section of the Pacific Ocean along the equator, and it shows the evolution of the cold blob starting in early August.<\/p>\n

This shift in conditions in the Pacific had its origins even prior to August. \u201cDuring the second half of July, the trade winds puffed a bit harder over the western half of the Pacific, likely helping this current Kelvin wave form,\u201d\u00a0writes Emily Becker<\/a>\u00a0in NOAA\u2019s informative and compellingly clear ENSO Blog.<\/p>\n

Parts of the blob reached the surface\u00a0in August, resulting in anomalously cool surface waters along the equator. This is\u00a0characteristic of La Ni\u00f1a. But it\u2019s important to note that this and other features have to strengthen and persist before NOAA will declare the official start of a La Ni\u00f1a episode.<\/p>\n

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\"La<\/a><\/p>\n

This animation compares sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean on May 12 and Sept. 12, 2017. The blue swath that\u00a0forms along the equator indicates cooler than normal temperatures that have developed since May. (Images: Earth Nullschool. Animation: Tom Yulsman)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

In the animation above, watch the equatorial region of the Pacific west of South America. The colors indicate how temperatures at the sea surface vary from the long-term average.\u00a0\u00a0The warmish hues along the equator in one of the two frames are indicative of slightly warmer than normal temperatures at the surface in mid-May of this year.<\/p>\n

In that same frame, orange and yellow tones hugging the west coast of South America reveal particularly warm water \u2014 evidence of a \u201ccoastal El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>.\u201d This phenomenon sometimes is a prelude to a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o, in which a spear of unusually warm water\u00a0extends\u00a0westward from the coast of South America along the equator.<\/p>\n

But as the second frame in the animation shows, that\u2019s not what happened this time.\u00a0That second frame shows sea surface temperature anomalies in mid-September. And the spear of blue along the equator indicates a\u00a0cool-down.<\/p>\n

Will conditions continue along this path, resulting in a La Ni\u00f1a? That\u2019s the forecast of computer models. As Emily Becker writes at the ENSO blog:<\/p>\n

The ensemble of models from the\u00a0North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)<\/a>\u00a0is predicting that La Ni\u00f1a will develop this fall, and last just through the winter. Back-to-back La Ni\u00f1a winters are not uncommon, and have occurred at least\u00a0five times since 1950<\/a>, most recently in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There are good scientific reasons to feel confident in the model predictions. But as Becker is quick to point out, the interactions between the ocean and atmosphere are very complex. So things may very well evolve differently.<\/p>\n

One thing is for sure, of course: Time will tell.<\/p>\n

Link to story<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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