{"id":15420,"date":"2018-05-23T09:03:18","date_gmt":"2018-05-23T16:03:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/?p=15420"},"modified":"2019-07-17T10:01:27","modified_gmt":"2019-07-17T17:01:27","slug":"what-will-we-be-eating-in-2050-farmers-weigh-several-factors-from-grist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2018\/05\/23\/what-will-we-be-eating-in-2050-farmers-weigh-several-factors-from-grist\/","title":{"rendered":"What will we be eating in 2050? Farmers weigh several factors &#8211; from Grist"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-15422\" src=\"http:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/avos.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"236\" height=\"214\"><\/p>\n<p><strong>By Nathanael Johnson<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>EXCERPTED<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Chris Sayer pushed his way through avocado branches and grasped a denuded limb. It was stained black, as if someone had ladled tar over its bark. In February, the temperature had dropped below freezing for three hours, killing the limb. The thick leaves had shriveled and fallen away, exposing the green avocados, which then burned in the sun. Sayer estimated he\u2019d lost one out of every 20 avocados on his farm in Ventura, just 50 miles north of Los Angeles, but he counts himself lucky.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf that freeze was one degree colder, or one hour longer, we would have had major damage,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Avocado trees start to die when the temperature falls below 28 degrees or rises above 100 degrees. If the weather turns cold and clammy during the short period in the spring when the flowers bloom, bees won\u2019t take to the air and fruits won\u2019t develop. The trees also die if water runs dry, or if too many salts accumulate in the soil, or if a new pest starts chewing on its leaves. \u201cAll of which is quite possible in the next few decades, as the climate shifts,\u201d Sayer said.<\/p>\n<p>The weather had been strange lately, Sayer told me. In the past year, Californians have lived through a historic drought, a massive wildfire that blotted out the sun, and a strangely warm winter followed by that unseasonable freeze. When I visited in April, his lemon trees were already loaded with ripe fruit \u2014 that usually doesn\u2019t happen until June. \u201cThings are screwy,\u201d Sayer said.<\/p>\n<p>From the vineyards of the north coast to the orange groves of Southern California, farmers like Sayer have been reeling from the weird weather.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>It might feel like we\u2019re peering into the distant future when we hear that by 2050, temperatures may very well&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpuc.ca.gov\/uploadedFiles\/CPUC_Public_Website\/Content\/About_Us\/Organization\/Divisions\/Policy_and_Planning\/PPD_Work_Products_(2014_forward)(1)\/CaFutureUnderClimateChange.pdf\">climb 4 degrees<\/a>, seas could&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpuc.ca.gov\/uploadedFiles\/CPUC_Public_Website\/Content\/About_Us\/Organization\/Divisions\/Policy_and_Planning\/PPD_Work_Products_(2014_forward)(1)\/CaFutureUnderClimateChange.pdf\">rise a foot<\/a>, and droughts and floods will become more common. But for farmers planting trees they hope will bear fruit 25 years from now, that seemingly distant future has to be reckoned with now.<\/p>\n<p>A lot of the country\u2019s tree crops grow in California, which produces two-thirds of the fruits and nuts for the United States. The same is true of grape vines, which bear abundant fruit for about 25 years (they slow down after that, but can keep going for&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/blog.lastbottlewines.com\/education\/oldest-grape-vine-slovenia\/\">hundreds of years<\/a>). It\u2019s in large part because so many farmers are making these long-term gambles on orchard crops that a recent scientific paper noted: \u201cAgricultural production in California is highly sensitive to climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/science.jpl.nasa.gov\/people\/Famiglietti\/\">Jay Famiglietti<\/a>, the senior water scientist at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, goes even further: \u201cIt\u2019s a virtual certainty that California will get drier. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a climate that\u2019s conducive to orchard crops anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In other words, for anyone trying to make money off long-lived crops, climate change is already here. And yet new saplings are pushing out of the ground all over the state.<\/p>\n<p>If these farmers were planting an annual crop, like cilantro, they\u2019d be making a bet on the weather for the next 45 days. But they\u2019re planting trees, which means making a bet on the next 40 years.<\/p>\n<p>After years of putting it off, Sayer is about to place such a four-decade bet by planting a bunch of new avocado trees. There\u2019s no way Sayer can foresee oncoming climate disaster, if that\u2019s what\u2019s hurtling toward the land his family has worked for the past 130 years in Ventura. He can see just a little bit of what might be coming \u2014 as if he\u2019s straining to glimpse signs of danger while blinkered. When I asked him how it felt, he said: \u201cLike I\u2019m about to cross a very busy road with my hood pulled over my head.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When Katherine Jarvis-Shean was a doctoral candidate researching the decline of cold winters a few years back, she thought more farmers should be freaking out. \u201cI used to think, \u2018Why aren\u2019t you guys more worried about this? It\u2019s going to be the end of the world.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p>After all, many fruit and nut trees require a good winter chill to bear fruit. But after spending a few years as an extension agent for the University of California \u2014 working directly with farmers and translating science into techniques they can apply on the land \u2014 she understands better. It comes down to this: Farmers have a ton of concerns, and the climate is just one of them.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you decide what to plant based on climate, but then can\u2019t make the lease payment, that\u2019s not sustainable,\u201d Jarvis-Shean said.<\/p>\n<p>If you are worried about water running out in 15 years, you might think it\u2019s a good idea to cut down half the state\u2019s almond groves \u2014 but if those almond trees are still putting money in your pockets, that wouldn\u2019t make sense until the killer drought hits. That\u2019s the crux of the matter for Sayer, and other farmers I interviewed. They\u2019re concerned about the changing climate, but they always come up with ingenious plans to adapt to bad weather. It\u2019s much harder for them to adapt to an overdrawn bank account.<\/p>\n<p>Sayer grows mostly lemons right now, but they\u2019re not long for this world. \u201cYou can see these lemon trees are getting a little rangy looking,\u201d Sayer said, gesturing toward a leafless branch. \u201cThis is going to be their last harvest, then they\u2019ve got a date with the chipper.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sayer knows lemons. He knows how to coddle them in old age, how to nudge them to produce more, how to keep them alive when rains fail, how to protect them from aphids and snails and scale insects and the nematodes in the ground. But this land has provided a home to a citrus orchard for 70 years, and each year more pests accumulate to suck the life from the trees. So Sayer needs to move on from lemons, and he\u2019s settled on avocados.<\/p>\n<p>From a climate perspective, the leather-skinned fruit are a risky choice. Avocado trees like their surroundings not too hot and not too cold, and they always need water.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/e-reports-ext.llnl.gov\/pdf\/329204.pdf\">One study<\/a> estimated that climate change would hurt California avocado trees so much that the state\u2019s production could be cut in half by 2050.<\/p>\n<p>As the sun burned off the marine layer of clouds over the orchard, Sayer patiently laid out the reasoning that led him to plant avocado trees. He explained that climate poses risks that are easy for outsiders to see \u2014 when you\u2019re reading about historic droughts in the newspaper and driving past acres of withered crops, it seems crazy to plant orchards. But farmers often have to contend with other risks that outweigh the danger of bad weather. Sayers puts them into three categories: climate risk, market risk, and execution risk.<\/p>\n<p>If he were only worried about climate risk, Sayer said, he\u2019d plant prickly pear. \u201cThey would grow in any post-apocalyptic hellscape you could imagine,\u201d he said. But who would buy them?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/article\/whatll-we-eat-in-2050-california-farmers-are-placing-bets\/\">Full article: &#8220;What will we be eating in 2050? Farmers weigh several factors&#8221; from Grist<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Nathanael Johnson EXCERPTED Chris Sayer pushed his way through avocado branches and grasped a denuded limb. It was stained black, as if someone had ladled tar over its bark. In February, the temperature had dropped below freezing for three &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2018\/05\/23\/what-will-we-be-eating-in-2050-farmers-weigh-several-factors-from-grist\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\r\n<title>What will we be eating in 2050? 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