{"id":6972,"date":"2014-10-03T08:36:41","date_gmt":"2014-10-03T15:36:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/?p=6972"},"modified":"2014-10-03T08:36:41","modified_gmt":"2014-10-03T15:36:41","slug":"fingerprint-climate-change-california-drought-washington-post","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2014\/10\/03\/fingerprint-climate-change-california-drought-washington-post\/","title":{"rendered":"Fingerprint of climate change on California drought – from the Washington Post"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Lake<\/a>

Lake Oroville<\/p><\/div>\n

By Angela Fritz<\/strong><\/p>\n

Researchers studying\u00a0the fingerprint of human-caused climate change on extreme weather events in 2013 have found that it played a role in half of the events that they looked at, including the California drought\u00a0and extreme heat events.<\/p>\n

Climate change attribution \u2014 figuring out what role climate change is playing in our weather events \u2014 is a very difficult science. There are so many moving parts: ground-level weather conditions, large-scale atmospheric patterns, and global teleconnections, like El Nino, that influence weather worldwide. And a changing climate can influence all of them (or none of them) in any given moment.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, given how\u00a0costly weather disasters have become<\/a>,\u00a0the question of\u00a0how extreme events could be changing is possibly the most important question to ask in climate change. So each year,\u00a0scientists take a look back<\/a>\u00a0at the way change change could have impacted a few notable\u00a0extreme events, and publish their findings in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.<\/p>\n

One study in the report, which was released on Monday, concluded that \u201cglobal warming has very likely increased the probability\u201d of the large-scale atmospheric patterns that have played a role\u00a0the current, historic California drought\u00a0\u2013 a\u00a0strong, persistent\u00a0ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. has essentially blocked the region from being impacted by storms coming off the Pacific.<\/p>\n

That ridging pattern, which lead to few precipitation events, was made more likely by the presence of human greenhouse gas emissions, the study says.<\/p>\n

Two other studies that dug in to similar aspects of\u00a0California drought were less eager to point the finger at human-caused climate change.\u00a0 Both studies looked at the role of warm ocean waters in the Pacific, and its relationship to California precipitation.\u00a0While warm sea surface temperatures in the northeast Pacific would cause the dry ridging pattern over the western U.S., it would also\u00a0act to\u00a0cause heavier precipitation events over California by increasing the humidity.<\/p>\n

While that\u2019s not the outcome California saw in 2013 and the beginning of 2014, scientists say its enough of a question mark to remain uncertain on whether or not this event would have occurred without global warming.<\/p>\n

However, it\u2019s important to note that these studies looked at very specific, individual factors of the drought. California could be looking at its\u00a0warmest year on record in 2014, but heat \u2014 which has a much more clear link with climate change, and acts to intensify and prolong a drought \u2013\u00a0was not considered in any of the studies looking at the California dry spell.<\/p>\n

While drought remains somewhat of a question mark, scientists are most confident that the risk of 2013\u2032s extreme heat events was made larger by\u00a0human-caused climate change. All\u00a0of\u00a0the studies that looked at the extremely hot summers or heat waves\u00a0around the globe\u00a0concluded that climate change played some role in dialing up\u00a0the temperature.<\/p>\n

Australia, in particular, was severely impacted by heat extremes in the southern hemisphere summer of 2012-2013. The year was the hottest on record for the country, and subjected Australians to numerous heat waves and a drought that cost the government approximately $300 million USD.\u00a0All\u00a0of the studies that examined Australia\u2019s summer temperatures found that climate change played a significant role in the heat, with one study even concluding that it has increased the risk of the event by two to three-fold.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe results from the Australia studies are rather striking,\u201d said\u00a0Peter Stott of the Met Office Hadley Center in the U.K., and an editor in the report compilation in a press briefing. \u201cIt\u2019s almost impossible, it\u2019s very hard to imagine, those temperatures in a world without climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hot summers and heat waves in New Zealand, Korea, China, and Japan were also examined, and determined to be influenced by climate change, and one group suggested that the Korea summer heat wave was made 10 times more likely by human-driven climate change.<\/p>\n

The link between heavy precipitation events and human-caused climate change in 2013 appear to be more ambiguous.<\/p>\n

Researchers who looked\u00a0at the extreme precipitation events of 2013 found varying results \u2014 two studies found that human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of heavy precipitation events in the U.S. and India, while another two found no discernible link between the extreme precipitation events in Europe and climate change. One study, which addressed the extreme flooding event in Colorado in September 2013, found that the probability of such an event has even decreased in climate change.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, scientists found that the occurrence of cold waves \u2014 long periods of abnormally cold weather \u2014 have become much less likely in the presence of global warming. In particular, scientists looked at the extremely cold winter of 2013 in the U.K., finding that the probability of that event has dropped 30-fold.<\/p>\n

Link to story<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Angela Fritz Researchers studying\u00a0the fingerprint of human-caused climate change on extreme weather events in 2013 have found that it played a role in half of the events that they looked at, including the California drought\u00a0and extreme heat events. 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