{"id":8690,"date":"2015-06-02T10:26:49","date_gmt":"2015-06-02T17:26:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/?p=8690"},"modified":"2015-06-02T10:28:17","modified_gmt":"2015-06-02T17:28:17","slug":"preliminary-report-drought-impacts-agriculture-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2015\/06\/02\/preliminary-report-drought-impacts-agriculture-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Preliminary report on drought impacts to agriculture in 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Ground<\/p>\n

Drought conditions in crop field near Woodland, Calif.
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

By Richard Howitt, Duncan MacEwan, Josue Medellin-Azuara, Jay Lund and Daniel A. Sumner<\/strong><\/p>\n

The drought is expected to be worse for California\u2019s agricultural economy this year because of reduced water availability, according to our preliminary estimates released today.<\/p>\n

The study<\/a>, summarized below, estimates farmers will have 2.7 million acre-feet less surface water than they would in a normal water year \u2014 about a 33 percent loss of water supply, on average. The impacts are concentrated mostly in the San Joaquin Valley and are not evenly distributed; individual farmers will face losses of zero to 100 percent.<\/p>\n

Expanded groundwater pumping will offset more than 70 percent of this surface water deficit, according to our modeling of how farmers are likely to respond. This leaves a shortage of 2.5 million acre-feet \u2014 9 to 10 percent of the amount normally applied to crops \u2014 compared with a net water shortage of 1.5 million acre-feet in 2014.<\/p>\n

The estimates, prepared for the California Department of Food and Agriculture, also show that farmers will fallow roughly 560,000 acres or 6 to 7 percent of California\u2019s average annual irrigated cropland.<\/p>\n

Estimated Drought Impacts to California Agriculture, 2015<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"caption\"<\/p>\n

Source:Howitt RE, Medell\u00edn-Azuara J, MacEwan D, Lund JR and Sumner DA. 2015. \u201cPreliminary Analysis: 2015 Drought Economic Impact Study<\/a>,\u201d UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.<\/em><\/p>\n

Economically, the drought seems on track to reduce crop, dairy and livestock revenues by $1.2 billion this year. Pumping costs are expected to reach nearly $600 million. Overall, the drought is estimated to cause direct costs of $1.8 billion \u2014 about 4 percent of California\u2019s $45 billion agricultural economy. When we account for the spillover effect of agriculture on the state\u2019s other economic sectors, the total cost of this year\u2019s drought on California\u2019s economy is $2.7 billion and the loss of about 18,600 full- and part-time jobs.<\/p>\n

California Agricultural Jobs and the Drought, 2013 -2014\"Pages<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\n
Agricultural employment increased from 2013 to 2014, but substantial losses of irrigation-season jobs occurred in areas particularly hard-hit by the drought.<\/strong><\/dd>\n
Source: Authors\u2019 calculations using California Employment and Development Department data<\/em><\/dd>\n
The drought induced job losses even while total agricultural employment continued to grow. We estimate further job losses will occur in 2015. As with last year, groundwater, global markets and water markets are greatly reducing the economic impacts of the drought on California\u2019s agriculture and consumers worldwide. Still, considerable local suffering will remain in harder-hit areas.We will update our estimates in the coming months as additional data become available.<\/p>\n

Richard Howitt<\/a>\u00a0is a professor emeritus of agricultural and resource economics,\u00a0Josu\u00e9 Medell\u00edn-Azuara\u00a0<\/a>is a senior researcher and\u00a0Jay Lund<\/a>\u00a0is a professor of civil and environmental engineering with the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.\u00a0Duncan MacEwan<\/a>\u00a0is with ERA Economics in Davis, Calif.\u00a0Daniel A. Sumner<\/a>\u00a0is the Director of the University of California Agricultural Issues Center and Professor of agricultural and resource economics at UC Davis.\u00a0 They are co-authors of the report,\u201cPreliminary Analysis: 2015 Drought Economic Impact Study<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0released June 2, 2015.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Drought conditions in crop field near Woodland, Calif. By Richard Howitt, Duncan MacEwan, Josue Medellin-Azuara, Jay Lund and Daniel A. Sumner The drought is expected to be worse for California\u2019s agricultural economy this year because of reduced water availability, according … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[234,13,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-drought","category-environment","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\r\nPreliminary report on drought impacts to agriculture in 2015 - CDFA's Planting Seeds Blog<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2015\/06\/02\/preliminary-report-drought-impacts-agriculture-2015\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Preliminary report on drought impacts to agriculture in 2015 - CDFA's Planting Seeds Blog\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Drought conditions in crop field near Woodland, Calif. 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