{"id":8973,"date":"2015-07-21T08:44:53","date_gmt":"2015-07-21T15:44:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/?p=8973"},"modified":"2015-07-21T08:44:53","modified_gmt":"2015-07-21T15:44:53","slug":"el-nino-coming-difference-sacramento-bee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2015\/07\/21\/el-nino-coming-difference-sacramento-bee\/","title":{"rendered":"El Nino likely coming, but will it make a difference? From the Sacramento Bee"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Source:<\/a>

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)<\/p><\/div>\n

By Phillip Reese<\/strong><\/p>\n

The El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern often brings deluges to California, quickly dropping inches of rain in what climatologists liken to turning on a fire hose.<\/p>\n

Except when it doesn\u2019t. Except when it brings no extra rain.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a hot topic today among water agency managers, farmers and others sick of California\u2019s historic drought. Earlier this month, the\u00a0National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>\u00a0announced El Ni\u00f1o is strengthening, that it will almost certainly continue through next winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and that it will probably last into early spring 2016.<\/p>\n

So which El Ni\u00f1o will show up? Will it be the El Ni\u00f1o of 1982-83 that doubled rainfall in Northern California? Or the El Ni\u00f1o in 1976-77 that corresponded with one of the worst droughts in recent memory? Will we see another strong El Ni\u00f1o like the one that hit in 1997-98, dropping about 32 inches of rain on Sacramento? Or will it be the strong El Ni\u00f1o of 1987-88, which brought just 15 inches of rain.<\/p>\n

\u201cUnfortunately, even a strong El Ni\u00f1o doesn\u2019t correlate to a particular outcome for California,\u201d state climatologist Michael Anderson said in an interview with The Sacramento Bee this week. \u201cThere really is no way to lean on this.\u201d<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o occurs when water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise by at least half a degree Celsius above normal for three consecutive months. This warming of the vast Pacific typically alters weather patterns throughout the Western Hemisphere. In the United States, the Northwest usually gets drier and the Southwest wetter. Sacramento and Central California, however, sit between these phenomena, so El Ni\u00f1o effects here can go either way.<\/p>\n

During weak or moderate El Ni\u00f1o events, in which Pacific water temperatures rise by a modest amount, it\u2019s hard to find a consistent rain pattern in Sacramento, according to a Bee review of data back to 1950. The average precipitation in those years was 18 inches \u2013 about normal for the city \u2013 and ranged from 7 inches to 31 inches.<\/p>\n

Stronger El Ni\u00f1o years \u2013 when ocean temperatures rise by a significant amount \u2013 are more encouraging. During those years, rainfall in Sacramento averaged 24 inches, roughly 130 percent of normal. Six of the nine strong El Ni\u00f1o years that have occurred since 1950 resulted in more than 25 inches of rain in Sacramento.<\/p>\n

\u201cA weak El Ni\u00f1o is not the same animal as a Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d said\u00a0William Patzert<\/a>, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1os of all stripes are more correlated with higher rainfall in Southern California. That would be nice, several climatologists said, but the rivers of Northern California and the snowpack on top of the Sierra typically provide most of the surface water used throughout the state.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems to take a fairly strong El Ni\u00f1o to increase precipitation in the northern part of the state \u2013 and that\u2019s where we need the water,\u201d said Kelly Redmond, deputy director and regional climatologist for the federal government\u2019s Western Regional Climate Center in Reno.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o tends to have its greatest effects in the western United States when the temperature pattern is strong between June and November, Redmond said. Models for that time period this year vary, but, on average, they predict water in the Pacific will settle at 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than normal \u2013 a very strong El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

The strongest El Ni\u00f1o years were in 1982-83 and 1997-98, with Pacific temperatures peaking at slightly more than 2 degrees higher than normal. During those years, it rained a shocking 37 and 32 inches in Sacramento.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the odds have been slowly rising that it could be a strong one,\u201d Redmond said. \u201cWhether it is among the (largest), time will tell. That\u2019s not out of the question.\u201d<\/p>\n

But there are complications. Chief among them is the feared presence of a blob of warm water in the far northeastern Pacific. This warm water and a corresponding \u201cridiculously resilient ridge\u201d of high pressure has bedeviled forecasters during the drought, pushing rain and snow away from California. Climatologists aren\u2019t sure if the blob will disappear in the face of a strong El Ni\u00f1o or, if not, how the two weather patterns will interact with each other.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe blob is still there, this blocking ridge,\u201d Patzert said. \u201cHere is the battle: The battle of El Ni\u00f1o and the blob. The blob would tend to keep the Pacific Northwest and Northern California dry.\u201d<\/p>\n

One less-than-ideal scenario, Patzert said, would be if El Ni\u00f1o dumped a ton of rain on Southern California while leaving Northern California dry. The result: Southern California would slog through mudslides and flash floods while Northern California remained parched \u2013 and most everyone wound up short of water again during summer 2016.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you look at its past history, (El Ni\u00f1o) has never been billed as a drought buster,\u201d Patzert said. \u201cIts always been billed as a wrecking ball. It comes at you fast and furious. You are always doing damage control.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even if California sees an above average amount of rainfall this winter, it wouldn\u2019t necessarily pull the state out of drought. It\u2019s rained so little for so long that it would take a few sustained years of rainfall to set things right, several climatologists said.<\/p>\n

\u201cA wet year would definitely ameliorate some conditions,\u201d Anderson said. It would especially help replenish the state\u2019s reservoirs, he said. But, he added, \u201cgroundwater recovery is a much slower process. It takes more sustained wet years to see that turnaround.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Patzert said El Ni\u00f1o weather patterns are often followed by La Ni\u00f1a weather patterns, and La Ni\u00f1a is correlated with dry years in California. The state has seen mostly dry years interspersed with a few wet periods for much of the past 15 years, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was dry, it was wet,\u201d he said. \u201cWe thought we were out of it, then we were back in it. It\u2019s like the Godfather: I think I\u2019m out and they keep pulling me back in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the uncertainties, climatologists are still keeping a close watch on El Ni\u00f1o. They uniformly say that it\u2019s our best chance of beating the drought, now in its fourth year. Several climatologists are more optimistic today than at other points during the drought.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is the great wet hope,\u201d Patzert said. \u201cWe are really on our knees about ready to go to our bellies with this drought.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Link to story<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Phillip Reese The El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern often brings deluges to California, quickly dropping inches of rain in what climatologists liken to turning on a fire hose. Except when it doesn\u2019t. Except when it brings no extra rain. 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