{"id":9521,"date":"2015-10-09T08:29:54","date_gmt":"2015-10-09T15:29:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/?p=9521"},"modified":"2015-10-09T08:29:54","modified_gmt":"2015-10-09T15:29:54","slug":"new-forecast-says-el-nino-may-help-northern-california-from-the-sacramento-bee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2015\/10\/09\/new-forecast-says-el-nino-may-help-northern-california-from-the-sacramento-bee\/","title":{"rendered":"New forecast says El Nino may help Northern California – from the Sacramento Bee"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Folsom<\/a>

Folsom Lake<\/p><\/div>\n

By Dale Kasler and Phillip Reese<\/strong><\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o might put a dent in the drought after all.<\/p>\n

In a revised forecast Thursday, the National Weather Service said Northern California stands a decent chance of getting significant precipitation from this winter\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern, a development that could help ease the state\u2019s four-year drought.<\/p>\n

Until now, forecasters have been saying this winter likely would bring heavy rains to Southern California, which is typical for El Ni\u00f1o, but they\u2019ve been less certain about the outlook for the northern half of the state. Because the state\u2019s major reservoirs are in the north, that\u2019s where the rain and snow need to fall to substantially bolster the state\u2019s water supplies.<\/p>\n

Michelle Mead, a forecaster in the agency\u2019s Sacramento office, said Sacramento and the Sacramento Valley have at least an 80 percent chance of seeing average precipitation this winter. The chance of above-average precipitation has been pegged at 34 percent to 40 percent, she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cNot that it will be a deluge and everybody needs to stop conserving water,\u201d she said. The bulk of the precipitation will fall in December, January and February, she said.<\/p>\n

William Patzert, a climate expert at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, was less circumspect, saying he\u2019s convinced El Ni\u00f1o will be felt in Northern California. \u201cAt this point \u2013 at this particular time \u2013 this is too large too fail,\u201d he said. \u201cPeople like to be conservative. They don\u2019t want to stick their neck out. But this is definitely the real deal.\u201d<\/p>\n

If history is a guide, California will see big snow in the northern mountains along with rain in the south, Patzert said. \u201cThe last two El Ni\u00f1os that were of this magnitude hosed all of California,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you look at the snowpack for those two El Ni\u00f1os, you had double the snowpack, too.\u201d<\/p>\n

What\u2019s changed since the weather service\u2019s previous forecasts? Mead said analysts took a fresh look at previous winters and concluded that strong El Ni\u00f1os tend to bring heavy rains in the north. Other forecasters noted the persistence of this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o and said temperature anomalies in the South Pacific are favorable to Northern California\u2019s rain outlook.<\/p>\n

\u201cModerate El Ni\u00f1os tend to get Southern California wet, and the strong ones get all of California wet,\u201d said Jeffrey Mount, a water specialist at the Public Policy Institute of California. Mount said he\u2019s encouraged that the so-called \u201cridiculously resilient ridge,\u201d the high-pressure system that kept rain and snow from falling on California, is breaking down.<\/p>\n

But Mount and Jay Lund, an engineer and watershed specialist at UC Davis, noted that the relative scarcity of strong El Ni\u00f1os \u2013 just six since 1957 \u2013 means it\u2019s difficult to get too comfortable with the latest forecast.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have a small sample size,\u201d Lund said. \u201cThere\u2019s still a substantial probability that we\u2019re going to be in a drought next year.\u201d<\/p>\n

State climatologist Michael Anderson, who has urged caution as El Ni\u00f1o fever has risen in the last few months, said he, too, thinks there\u2019s a better chance of significant precipitation in Northern California. \u201cAs we get closer, we are seeing trajectories move in a more favorable outcome,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Anderson nonetheless encouraged Sacramento residents to continue to conserve water. He and others noted that the drought is so severe that even a huge rainfall year will not fully erase its effects. Plus, he said, \u201cWe want to wait until we actually see it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mead said Sacramento received 13.8 inches of rain last winter, about 68 percent of average.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a phenomenon linked to above-average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Mead said the temperature is expected to peak at 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal this winter, ranking this among the strongest El Ni\u00f1os on record.<\/p>\n

The latest forecast put the chance of El Ni\u00f1o striking at 95 percent, the same as a month ago.<\/p>\n

Link to story<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Dale Kasler and Phillip Reese El Ni\u00f1o might put a dent in the drought after all. In a revised forecast Thursday, the National Weather Service said Northern California stands a decent chance of getting significant precipitation from this winter\u2019s … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\r\nNew forecast says El Nino may help Northern California - from the Sacramento Bee - CDFA's Planting Seeds Blog<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/plantingseedsblog.cdfa.ca.gov\/wordpress\/index.php\/2015\/10\/09\/new-forecast-says-el-nino-may-help-northern-california-from-the-sacramento-bee\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New forecast says El Nino may help Northern California - from the Sacramento Bee - CDFA's Planting Seeds Blog\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Dale Kasler and Phillip Reese El Ni\u00f1o might put a dent in the drought after all. 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