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From PPIC – If Drought Continues: Environment and Poor Rural Communities Most Likely to Suffer
URBAN AREAS IN BEST SHAPE, FARMERS ADAPTING BUT VULNERABLE
From the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Water Policy Center
SAN FRANCISCO, August 19, 2015—If the California drought continues another two to three years, the state will face increasingly acute challenges in two areas: water supply in some low-income rural communities, where wells are running dry; and ecosystems, where the state’s iconic biodiversity is under severe threat and wildfire risk is growing to new extremes. Farmers have been hit hard, but are adapting. The state’s cities and suburbs are in the best shape to withstand more years of drought, thanks to investments in diversified water supplies and improved demand-management.
These are some of the key findings of a new report released today by the PPIC Water Policy Center.
The report—which draws on wide-ranging data sources and conversations with officials, businesses, and stakeholders on the frontlines of drought management—finds that wells in some rural communities are expected to run dry at an increasing pace. As of July 2015, more than 2,000 dry wells were reported in communities that are home to some of California’s most vulnerable residents.
California’s freshwater habitats and forested lands, which have already been severely affected, will continue to face huge challenges and force difficult trade-offs. These could include the extinction of as many as 18 species of native fish, including most salmon runs; and high mortality for waterbirds that use the Pacific Flyway. Continued drought also brings a high risk of one or more severe fires that would affect local communities, watersheds, wildlife, infrastructure, and air quality.
In agriculture, roughly 550,000 acres will be fallowed for each year the drought continues, according to a new report by UC Davis for the California Department of Food and Agriculture. The study estimates the annual cost of water shortages to the state’s economy at more than $2.8 billion and more than 21,000 full-time, part-time, and seasonal jobs. Extra groundwater pumping will continue to be a key tool to reduce agricultural economic losses over the short term. There are still abundant groundwater reserves in many places, and high commodity prices make this extra pumping affordable—but it will contribute to dry wells and sinking lands in some areas.
Cities will need to continue to diversify their water sources and manage demand if the drought continues, but are likely to avoid extreme scarcity. The state’s economy, which grew faster than the US economy as a whole during the drought thus far, will continue to show only minimal impacts, in part due to urban areas’ resilience.
“This drought is serving as a stress test for California’s water management systems,” said Ellen Hanak, director of the Water Policy Center and a co-author of the report. “Californians have worked hard to limit its impacts, but the experience has also revealed major gaps in our readiness to cope with the droughts we expect in the future.”
The report says that ongoing drought will increase the need for emergency actions to get drinking water to rural communities and prevent extinctions of fish and large-scale death of waterbirds. The state also needs to start longer-term planning to build resilience so that fewer decisions are made on an emergency basis. Some key areas where both short- and long-term drought planning is essential include:
- Groundwater: State and federal support is needed now for tools to facilitate implementation of the new groundwater law. Addressing short-term impacts of pumping, such as harm to infrastructure from sinking lands, may require charging fees or limiting new wells in some areas. Longer term, better management of groundwater will ensure it continues to serve as the primary drought supply.
- Rural Communities: Emergency support programs need to expand and improve. Priorities include making it easier for individuals to seek help if their wells run dry. Because many dry wells are unlikely to return to normal even after rains return, longer term solutions are needed to address water supply and quality in these communities.
- Biodiversity: Short term, strategies to improve flows for imperiled fish may help. Expanding the state’s program of conservation hatcheries—those specifically run to protect biodiversity—could also stave off some extinctions. Similarly, risks to waterbirds could be reduced by paying farmers to temporarily flood fields at key times. A long term drought plan for ecosystems is needed.
- Wildfires: Suppressing fires is the only real short-term option, but this will become harder if forest conditions worsen. A long-term strategy of improved forestry and fire management—with strong federal participation—is needed, and will require sustained efforts over large areas for decades.
“If the drought continues, emergency programs will need to be significantly expanded to get drinking water to rural residents and prevent major losses of waterbirds and extinctions of native fish species,” said Jeffrey Mount, senior fellow at the PPIC Water Policy Center. “California needs a longer-term effort to build drought resilience in the most vulnerable areas.”
The report, What If the California Drought Continues?, is supported with funding from the California Water Foundation, an initiative of the Resources Legacy Fund. The authors, in addition to Hanak and Mount, are Caitrin Chappelle, associate director of the PPIC Water Policy Center; Jay Lund, adjunct fellow at PPIC and director of the University of California, Davis, Center for Watershed Sciences; Josué Medellín-Azuara, senior researcher at the Center for Watershed Sciences; Peter Moyle, associate director of the Center for Watershed Sciences; and Nathaniel Seavy, research director for the Pacific Coast and Central Valley at Point Blue Conservation Science.
See this news release on the PPIC website here.
Posted in Drought
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From the Department of Water Resources – NASA Report: Drought Causing Valley Land to Sink
SACRAMENTO, CA — As Californians continue pumping groundwater in response to the historic drought, the Department of Water Resources today released a new NASA report showing land in the San Joaquin Valley is sinking faster than ever before, nearly two inches per month in some locations.
“Because of increased pumping, groundwater levels are reaching record lows—up to 100 feet lower than previous records,” said Department of Water Resources Director Mark Cowin. “As extensive groundwater pumping continues, the land is sinking more rapidly and this puts nearby infrastructure at greater risk of costly damage.”
Sinking land, known as subsidence, has occurred for decades in California because of excessive groundwater pumping during drought conditions, but the new NASA data shows the sinking is happening faster, putting infrastructure on the surface at growing risk of damage. NASA obtained the subsidence data by comparing satellite images of the Earth’s surface over time.
Land near Corcoran in the Tulare basin sank 13 inches in just eight months—about 1.6 inches per month. One area in the Sacramento Valley was sinking approximately half-an-inch per month, faster than previous measurements. NASA also found areas near the California Aqueduct sank up to 12.5 inches, with eight inches of that occurring in just four months of 2014.
The increased subsidence rates have the potential to damage local, state, and federal infrastructure, including aqueducts, bridges, roads, and flood control structures. Long-term subsidence has already destroyed thousands of public and private groundwater well casings in the San Joaquin Valley. Over time, subsidence can permanently reduce the underground aquifer’s water storage capacity.
In response to the new findings, and as part of an ongoing effort to respond to the effects of California’s historic drought, the Governor’s Drought Task Force has committed to working with affected communities to develop near-term and long-term recommendations to reduce the rate of sinking and address risks to infrastructure. This action builds on the historic Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, enacted by Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. in September 2014, which requires local governments to form sustainable groundwater agencies that will regulate pumping and recharge to better manage groundwater supplies.
“Groundwater acts as a savings account to provide supplies during drought, but the NASA report shows the consequences of excessive withdrawals as we head into the fifth year of historic drought,” Director Cowin said. “We will work together with counties, local water districts, and affected communities to identify ways to slow the rate of subsidence and protect vital infrastructure such as canals, pumping stations, bridges, and wells.”
The Department of Water Resources is also launching a $10 million program to help counties with stressed groundwater basins to develop or strengthen local ordinances and conservation plans. This funding comes from the statewide Water Bond passed last year, and applications for funding will be posted in the coming days. This year’s budget passed in July also enables streamlined environmental review for any county ordinance that reduces groundwater pumping.
NASA will also continue its subsidence monitoring, using data from the European Space Agency’s recently launched Sentinel-1 mission to cover a broader area and identify more vulnerable locations.
DWR also completed a recent land survey along the Aqueduct–which found 70-plus miles in Fresno, Kings, and Kern counties sank more than 1.25 feet in two years–and will now conduct a system-wide evaluation of subsidence along the California Aqueduct and the condition of State Water Project facilities. The evaluation will help the department develop a capital improvement program to repair damage from subsidence. Past evaluations found that segments of the Aqueduct from Los Banos to Lost Hills sank more than five feet since construction.
The report, Progress Report: Subsidence in the Central Valley, California, prepared for DWR by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is available here:
http://portal-dev.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/index.cfm
See the original news release from the California Department of Water Resources here.
Posted in Climate Change, Drought
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Glimpses of California’s water future – from the Los Angeles Times
By Peter King
A sprawl of sewage treatment plants, recharge basins and desalination facilities, stretching out across an industrial backlot near Rancho Cucamonga.
A collection of slender, solar-powered telemetry towers rising from an almond orchard in the San Joaquin Valley to bring high-tech efficiency to irrigation.
And, at a university research station near Irvine, three Potemkin Village-like suburban houses in a row, offering a new vision of the traditional lawn.
Mindful that only nature can whip a drought, those who study and manage water in California are focused not on the current epic, but on better preparing the state for the next drought, and the drought after that, and the drought after that.
The desalination plants, the lawn-less yards and the tech-savvy approach to irrigation are just a few examples of that new water-saving landscape. Gone will be the massive projects once erected to battle water shortages. In their place will be a host of incremental measures, each designed to do more with what nature provides.
The environmental toll and political challenges associated with “moving the rain,” as the Shasta Dam’s purpose was once described by a hardhat working on the project, will require solutions that appear to be more like buckshot than the silver bullets of the past.
Peter Brostrom, a state Department of Water Resources official responsible for finding water efficiencies, talks about taking “a variety of small steps across the board,” such as thinning overgrown forests, shoring up leaky delivery systems and building more coherent and uniform data about water supply and usage.
Randy Fiorini, a third-generation Turlock grower who serves as chair of the Delta Stewardship Council, says it’s time to move on from waiting for Shasta-scaled water storage projects that once were the Holy Grail of California agriculture, but have become increasingly politically problematic. Instead, he advocates a push for smaller, less controversial reservoir projects backed by “local champions.”
“There are a lot of smaller projects on the drawing boards around the state,” he has written, “and we could actually get many of them built in the near future.”
Whatever individual measures are pursued, everyone understands the most opportune time to gain ground is now: When a drought ends, and they all eventually do, the rains wash away the general urgency and intensified focus on all things water.
“One way to put it is that you try to get as much as you can out of a drought,” said Martha Davis, who in the 1970s helped lead a movement that both saved Mono Lake and introduced Los Angeles to low-flow toilets.
“Another way to think about it,” she said from her office at the Inland Empire Utilities Agency in Chino, “is that a drought pushes us and shows where we are not prepared, and also shows us what is working in one place, and what may work in other places.”
Californians today consume roughly a quarter less water per capita than they did two decades ago, while irrigation innovations have allowed growers to achieve greater crop yields without additional water — progress that was prodded along by three previous droughts.
Among the more optimistic water thinkers, there’s hope that the severity of the current epic might fundamentally alter how Californians use and think about water. It is a transformation, they say, that will become more a matter of necessity than nobility as population growth and climate change influence the supply-and-demand equation.
“If California is going to have 50 million people,” Gov. Jerry Brown has said, “they’re not going to live the same way the native people lived, much less the way people do today. … You have to find a more elegant way of relating to material things. You have to use them with greater sensitivity and sophistication.”
At the Inland Empire Utilities Agency, new thinking about its water portfolio began about 15 years ago.
It laid the infrastructure for large-scale recycling projects, including the world’s largest indoor composting facility, situated in a former Ikea warehouse. It retooled flood control systems to capture rain runoff for underground storage, rather than rush it out to the Pacific. It deployed de-salters to clean underground water polluted by runoff from dairies and steel plants. It put in programs to encourage native landscapes.
It has been expensive: an estimated $500 million. But it also has been effective. Overall, locally developed water supplies have risen by 50% and the agency’s reliance on imported water has fallen by 40%.
“Hopefully we are building a sustainable system to get us through the next 100 years,” said Joe Grindstaff, general manager of the agency that supplies wholesale water for 830,000 residents in seven municipalities.
Of course, meaningful progress must involve the sector where the bulk of California’s developed water is put to work: farms.
Some agricultural leaders make the case that forces of change already have begun to influence practices in the state’s growing regions, particularly in the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys.
One is economic. The trend has been to plant more trees and vines and far fewer forage crops such as alfalfa. Fruits and nuts are more lucrative — the dollar value of the California agricultural economy has doubled in two decades — but they are also multiyear investments that require reliable sources of water.
At the same time, the go-to source for water in droughts — underground reserves — is becoming harder to get to. As water tables drop, the price of pumping goes up. And in any case, the state’s recently enacted Sustainable Groundwater Management Act means a new sheriff is coming to town.
Full implementation of the act is a good two decades away; local agencies must first develop plans to replenish and manage underground supplies to make them sustainable for the long haul. As the plans evolve into action, it is widely believed that the result in some farming regions will be that significant acreage will be taken out of production.
Meanwhile, it is expected that market forces eventually will work to place a higher premium on agricultural water.
“Economists have for years argued that the market should determine the value of water,” Dan Dooley, a water lawyer who helped draft the groundwater legislation, noted in a speech in April. “Instead the price for most water is determined almost exclusively by the cost of the infrastructure to deliver it to the customer, not by the value of water itself.”
California growers, he said, “increasingly see water as an asset. … This change in how water is viewed will also alter how water is managed.”
For starters, it will make efficiencies even more attractive, especially to younger generations who grew up in an era of heightened environmental awareness and increased access to technological advances.
Jeff Shields, general manager of the South San Joaquin Irrigation District, cites one example: a young man who visited the district’s Manteca office and was struck by the inefficiency of flood irrigation and high-volume sprinklers.
“He was just out of Fresno State, and he came to me and said, ‘Really? This is how we are still irrigating? A guy in a truck opens up a gate and lets the water go and comes back in five hours and closes the gate. That’s the best we can do?'”
From that encounter came a pressurized water system, powered by solar and high-efficiency motors, that feeds water on demand to farmers’ drip irrigation systems. Data relayed from towers arrayed within the orchards allow growers to determine from ground sensors when and how long to irrigate, and to order water delivery to their drip systems by computer or smartphone.
“They can be on a beach in Hawaii and take care of their irrigation,” Shields said. And use considerably less water in the process.
At present, the pilot project, now in its third growing season, involves just 3,000 of the district’s 50,000 acres. But, Shields said, it has the capacity to be employed more broadly: “It’s scalable, absolutely it’s scalable.”
What flood irrigation is to agriculture, the front yard is fast becoming to the residential sector. Landscaping accounts for half of urban water use in California, running as high as 80% in some localities.
And so, with mandatory conservation edicts, brown lawns and plastic turf have become emblems of this drought, just as bricks in toilets were during the 1970s drought. What’s not clear is whether the response will outlast the emergency and, more to the point, whether it represents an enduring transformation in the way residential Californians regard water.
“Old habits are hard to break,” said Jerry Brown, general manager of the Contra Costa Water District. “People have their ways, and I’m not sure society is ready to say a beautiful house doesn’t require a nice green lawn out front.”
Still, water consumption in the Contra Costa County district was down 40% in June from the same month in 2013.
Shifts do happen. A Los Angeles sky not choked with smog was once thought unimaginable. The state’s response to the energy crisis of 15 years ago also offers an instructive parallel. California entered the crisis facing the prospect of rolling blackouts and criticism of its failure to build more power plants. It emerged, after two years of double-digit conservation, with a fundamental shift in thinking and consumer behavior.
What the state needed was not additional generation capacity. What it needed was to manage demand, to conserve, during the 400 hours a year or so when supplies were potentially tight. It was a conversation-altering breakthrough.
“People always tend to focus on the supply side,” said Wally McGuire, primary architect of the state’s Flex Your Power conservation campaign. “But the demand side of the equation is equally powerful.”
Flex Your Power lives on today as Flex Alert, which calls on Californians to move into conservation mode when supplies tighten. In the few times Flex Alert has been activated, the response has matched or bettered that seen in the energy crisis.
“People are generally good” is how McGuire described the driving premise behind Flex You Power, “and they will do the right thing.”
Movement toward lasting change is easier when the destination can be visualized. At the University of California agricultural research center in Irvine, an 8-year-old demonstration project shows how alternative landscaping doesn’t have to be all cacti and lava rocks.
Three beige classrooms have been outfitted and landscaped to resemble a row of suburban homes, complete with white picket fences. They are not-so-poetically identified as residences A, B and C. A offers conventional landscaping: fescue lawn, birch trees and boxwood. B’s plants and grasses are better suited to a Mediterranean climate. C’s are natives: sedge grasses, manzanita and sycamores.
All three seem fetching enough. The difference is that B requires about half as much water as A, and C even less.
Tammy Majcherek, a UC community educator, said requests from municipal landscapers and private gardeners to tour the project have picked up as the drought persists.
“I am not sure the old mindset has changed,” she said, “but I think maybe we are beginning to turn the corner.”
Posted in Conservation, Drought
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Wasps used to protect citrus trees from fatal disease – from the Los Angeles Times
By Geoffrey Mohan
They look like grains of black sand inside a prescription vial.
But each speck is a wasp that is lethal to the offspring of the Asian citrus psyllid, an aphid-size bug that spreads the bacteria that cause Huanglongbing, or citrus greening disease. If California’s $1.8-billion citrus industry is to buy enough time to stave off the disease, which has decimated citrus crops in Florida, Mexico and Brazil, those vials may as well be hourglasses.
At least nine trees on seven properties in San Gabriel tested positive for the disease this summer, the second outbreak in the state in three years. Crews have been going door-to-door on the streets around Vincent Lugo Park, inspecting trees and spraying them with insecticides. They hope to make a dent in the local population of the bug to keep the bacteria from hitching a ride to other trees in a quarantine area that has swelled to 87 square miles in the San Gabriel Valley.
Similar quarantines restricting the movement of citrus fruit and plants are in effect in 17 counties where the psyllid — but not the disease — has been detected. Growers have been applying insecticides in their orchards, but agricultural officials long ago concluded that wider spraying in urban areas far removed from orchards is too costly and is unlikely to stem the psyllid infestation.
Instead, David Morgan, a biocontrol specialist with the California Department of Food and Agriculture, raises at least 100,000 Tamarixia radiata every month in his hothouses in Riverside. His crews tap out the tiny wasps from those vials on citrus trees in a 40,000-square-mile area from Imperial County to Santa Barbara. They have released about 2.4 million Tamarixia since 2011. They also have spread a much smaller number of a second parasitic wasp, Diaphorencyrtus aligarhensis.
It’s probably best that you can’t see what Tamarixia does to the babies of the citrus psyllid. Female wasps lay their eggs on the undersides of the nymphs, and when the wasps hatch, they burrow into these juvenile psyllids and begin digesting their innards, eventually leaving an empty hull where the wasp can grow to maturity.
“It basically squirts out enzymes and slowly digests the host while it’s still alive,” Morgan said. The adult wasps also dine on the nymphs.
The densely populated Inland Empire may seem an unlikely place for ground zero of the psyllid infestation. Citrus production, which started here in the 19th century, has long since been swept away by urbanization. But urban populations and their fondness for citrus trees are aiding the spread of the bug and the bacteria it carries, according to researchers and agricultural officials.
The disease has not been detected in commercial orchards, largely because California reacted more quickly than Florida, where a decade-long outbreak has cost the industry an estimated $7 billion.
In 2009, a year after psyllids were first found near the Mexico border, growers created a voluntarily assessment that raises about $15 million a year for the Citrus Pest and Disease Prevention Program, some of which funds Morgan’s research. The U.S. Department of Agriculture gave the state nearly $9.6 million this year to fight the pest, and supports a related program at UC Riverside that provides Morgan with Tamarixiastock.
“We are trying to save an industry, but we’re also trying to save Grandma’s citrus tree in her backyard,” said grower Nick Hill of Greenleaf Farms in Kingsburg, who heads the prevention program’s executive committee. “If this thing gets through the state, it could conceivably wipe out citrus in the state of California.”
Even the “mother tree” of California’s famed navel oranges is infested with the psyllid — although it shows no signs of disease. Planted by Eliza Tibbets in 1873, the Brazilian variety launched the state to its lead position in the fresh citrus market. Now shaggy and 17 feet tall, it is fenced off in a pocket park in what is now the heart of Riverside.
“There’s actually more citrus in urban areas than there is in production in California,” said Morgan, who confesses to having 40 plants at his Riverside home. A crude survey by UC Riverside researchers — essentially a drive-by of about 670 homes — suggests 40% of urban and suburban residences in the Inland Empire have at least one citrus plant visible from the street. Morgan’s crews release their wasps mainly on trees that are publicly accessible.
That would not include the orange tree tucked away behind Iris Malakoff’s garage, a couple blocks from Lugo Park. Other than at harvest, Malakoff hardly gave the tree much attention since planting it a decade ago, she said. “There was just some extra space, so several years ago I put the orange tree there,” she said. Inspectors who are combing every property near Lugo Park sprayed the tree on July 30, she said.
“The biggest issue is getting people to know what they have in their backyard, and to not pass it on,” said Gretchen Sterling, who runs a farmers’ market on Thursdays at Lugo Park.
Many residents also had no idea that their orange Jessamine is in the same family as citrus and could host the psyllid, said Alfredo Sanchez, a California Department of Food and Agriculture supervisor who was overseeing spray crews near the park. Other lesser-known psyllid hosts include wampee and the Indian curry tree.
Although it is relatively easy to find the psyllid on such plants, where it leaves crusty white strands on the tender new growth on which it dines, it is harder to detect the disease itself. Early signs include a mottled, asymmetric yellowing pattern on leaves. Identifying the bacterium behind the disease requires DNA-based laboratory testing, which can be faulty.
“The trouble with that test is even though it’s accurate, it’s not very sensitive,” said Mark Hoddle, a UC Riverside agricultural extension specialist and biocontrol researcher. Because the bacteria are not uniformly distributed on the tree, sampling can miss the disease, he said.
Hoddle has been working on biological ways to control the psyllid since it first was detected in California counties bordering Mexico, in 2008. His work took him to eastern Pakistan in search of natural predators.
“My job is to figure out where the pest came from, go back to that country, see what’s eating it there and see whether there is any potential for those natural enemies to be released in California,” he said. After several years of testing, he found that two of the nine parasites he brought back proved suitable to California’s climate and did not seem to pose a threat to other flora and fauna.
“We feel pretty confident that we’ve found the two best natural enemies, and that they are pretty safe for California,” Hoddle said. “All they can eat is Asian citrus psyllid and they like it a lot.”
Hoddle and Morgan said the wasps alone won’t halt the psyllid. But the effort could buy time for scientists to find ways to cure the disease or prevent the bacteria from propagating. Once a bacterial colony gets hold, it rapidly clogs the system that transports nutrients in the citrus plant, leaving fruit green, misshapen and bitter.
“The strategy is having time up your sleeve to prepare for the inevitable spread of the disease,” Hoddle said. “That enables other technologies to come online.”
Updated UC Davis report on drought impacts to agriculture
- UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences finds $1.84 billion in losses due to drought in 2015.
- Job losses and crop fallowing about 30 percent greater than 2014, but study notes that irrigation districts and farmers are showing more resilience than anticipated.
- Groundwater, water trading and operational flexibility have significantly reduced losses.
———————————–
Statement from CDFA Secretary Karen Ross on the findings:
“This report details harmful drought impacts in certain areas of the state where water supplies are most scarce. At the same time, the report demonstrates the overall resilience of California agriculture. Through expanded water conservation, careful use of groundwater, and deployment of new technologies, our agriculture sector has remained productive for the benefit of consumers across the country. As the drought stretches on, our farmers and ranchers will continue to innovate.”
————————————————
News release from UC Davis:
Drought costs California agriculture $1.84B and 10,100 jobs in 2015
The drought is tightening its grip on California agriculture, squeezing about 30 percent more workers and cropland out of production than in 2014, according to the latest drought impact report by the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.
In 2015, the state’s agricultural economy directly will lose about $1.84 billion and 10,100 jobs because of the drought, the report estimated, with the Central Valley hardest hit.
The analysis also forecasts how the industry will fare if the drought persists through 2017.
‘Not a free lunch’
Currently, the industry overall remains robust. The agricultural economy continues to grow in this fourth year of severe drought, thanks mostly to the state’s vast but declining reserves of groundwater, which will offset about 70 percent of the surface water shortage this year, the researchers said.
California is the world’s richest food-producing region. Continued strong global demand and prices for many of its fruits, nuts and vegetables has helped sustain the farm economy along with intrastate water transfers and shifts in growing locations.
“We’re getting by remarkably well this year — much better than many had predicted — but it’s not a free lunch,” said lead author Richard Howitt, a UC Davis professor emeritus of agricultural and resource economics.
The heavy reliance on groundwater comes at ever-increasing energy costs as farmers pump deeper and drill more wells. Some of the heavy pumping is in basins already in severe overdraft — where groundwater use greatly exceeds replenishment of aquifers — inviting further land subsidence, water quality problems and diminishing reserves needed for future droughts.
Further, several small rural communities continue to suffer from high unemployment and drying up of domestic wells because of the drought, particularly in the Tulare Basin.
“If a drought of this intensity persists beyond 2015, California’s agricultural production and employment will continue to erode,” said co-author Josué Medellín-Azuara, a water economist with the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.
Major conclusions
The UC Davis team used computer models and the latest estimates of surface water availability from state and federal water projects and local water districts federal state and local water projects. They forecast several drought-related impacts in the state’s major agricultural regions for the current growing season, including:
- The direct costs of drought to agriculture will be $1.84 billion for 2015. The total impact to all economic sectors is an estimated $2.74 billion, compared with $2.2 billion in 2014. The state’s farmers and ranchers currently receive more than $46 billion annually in gross revenues, a small fraction of California’s $1.9 trillion-a-year economy.
- The loss of about 10,100 seasonal jobs directly related to farm production, compared with the researchers’ 2014 drought estimate of 7,500 jobs. When considering the spillover effects of the farm losses on all other economic sectors, the employment impact of the 2015 drought more than doubles to 21,000 lost jobs.
- Surface water shortages will reach nearly 8.7 million acre-feet, which will be mostly offset by increased groundwater pumping of 6 million acre-feet.
- Net water shortages of 2.7 million acre-feet will cause roughly 542,000 acres to be idled — 114,000 more acres than the researchers’ 2014 drought estimate. Most idled land is in the Tulare Basin.
- The effects of continued drought through 2017 (assuming continued 2014 water supplies) will likely be 6 percent worse than in 2015, with the net water shortage increasing to 2.9 million acre-feet a year. Gradual decline in groundwater pumping capacity and water elevations will add to the incremental costs of a prolonged drought.
Groundwater regulations could help
The scientists noted that new state groundwater regulations requiring local agencies to attain sustainable yields could eventually reverse the depletion of underground reserves.
“The transition will cause some increased fallowing of cropland or longer crop rotations but will help preserve California’s ability to support more profitable permanent and vegetable crops during drought,” said co-author Jay Lund, director of the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.
The report was primarily funded by the California Department of Food and Agriculture.
Other authors on the report include Daniel Sumner, a UC Davis professor of agricultural and resource economics and director of the UC Agricultural Issues Center, and Duncan MacEwan of the ERA Economics consulting firm in Davis.
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The Farmer and the Chef – from Sacramento Magazine
By Marybeth Bizjak

Kurt Spataro and Suzanne Peabody Ashworth at Peabody Ranch in West Sacramento. Photography by Marc Thomas Kallweit
It’s 4 p.m. on a Tuesday at Formoli’s Bistro in East Sacramento, and farmer Susan Hanks has just dropped off a box of produce. Tucked in with the tarragon, thyme and oregano is a surprise for chef Aimal Formoli: a few pounds of loquats, still attached to the knobby branches on which they were growing in the Rio Linda sunshine just a few hours earlier.
Formoli pulls one of the small, apricotlike fruits off its branch and pops it into his mouth. A smile widens across his face. “Wow. That’s amazing,” he says. “So juicy.” By the time his first customers start arriving at 5:30 that evening, he’s already incorporated the fruit into his nightly special: braised pork with trumpet mushrooms and loquats, served on a crispy polenta cake.
Formoli and Hanks are emblematic of the relationship between today’s breed of chef and farmer. It’s less transactional and more collaborative. Increasingly, chefs and farmers see each other as partners in what ends up on your restaurant plate.
Take Kurt Spataro and Suzanne Peabody Ashworth. As executive chef for Paragary Restaurant Group, Spataro was an early adopter of the farm-to-fork movement. But as knowledgeable as Spataro is about food, he still drives out to Peabody Ranch in West Sacramento four or five times a year to learn from the woman he considers the master.
During a recent visit, Spataro follows Peabody Ashworth out into her fields to see what’s growing and find out how he might use it at his restaurants. A nationally renowned seed saver, Peabody Ashworth cultivates 20 acres of amazing diversity, growing rare and unusual heirloom fruits and vegetables that few people, even most chefs, are familiar with. Pointing out coriander that’s gone to seed, she pulls off some tiny green pods for Spataro to taste and tells him to think about how he might use them at Paragary’s Midtown Bistro, which recently reopened after a yearlong remodel. He thinks he might be able to pickle them as an accompaniment to cured fish, but he frets about a slight bitterness. “Does that change?” he asks. “As they mature, they’re less bitter,” Peabody Ashworth replies.
Aimal Formoli leaves the growing decisions to farmer Susan Hanks
They move through the field, sampling Pakistan mulberries, radish pods, cactuslike cristalina leaves and spiky bits from an obscure English coastal grass. Spataro asks questions and listens thoughtfully to Peabody Ashworth’s answers. “She’s an awesome resource,” he says.
Spataro met Peabody Ashworth about 15 years ago, when she had him out to the farm for lunch. The two clicked. Since then, he’s returned often, sometimes bringing employees to learn and be inspired. During one visit, Peabody Ashworth had him milk a goat just for the experience. “Every time I come, I learn something,” he says.
Antonio Garza (left) helped chef Shannon McElroy build a garden on Federalist’s rooftop
Not all farmer-chef relationships are one of teacher and pupil. For Antonio Garza, the farm manager at Soil Born Farms on Hurley Way, and Shannon McElroy, head chef at Federalist in midtown Sacramento, it’s more like a pas de deux.
They met a few years ago while working together at Feeding Crane Farms, an innovative urban farm in Natomas. Last year, as he got ready to open Federalist, a hip pizzeria housed in a series of connected steel shipping containers, McElroy asked his old pal Garza to come up with a custom salad mix that would work with McElroy’s sweetish fig chili vinaigrette. “I wanted greens that were less bitter, more sweet,” McElroy explains.
Garza created a proprietary mix that included oak leaf, curly red leaf, mizuna, curly red mustard and deer tongue. “He nailed it,” says McElroy. “I tasted it and said, ‘This is what I’m looking for.’”
Sometimes, Garza leads and McElroy follows. For Federalist’s arugula salad, McElroy tailored the dressing to suit Garza’s assertive greens. “His arugula is the best in town,” McElroy explains. “It’s spicier and nuttier than anybody else’s.” So McElroy backed off on the pepper in the lemon wholegrain mustard vinaigrette. He also uses Garza’s arugula to make pesto for the Neapolitan-style pizzas and sandwiches.
Garza has more than a passing interest in cooking; he follows chefs on Facebook and pays attention to what’s happening in the food world. Out in the field, he thinks like a chef. He picks produce at what he calls “the right size” for its intended dish, selects leaves for loft and texture, and uses shade cloth to grow lettuces with just the right combination of tenderness and crunch. “Antonio understands cooking,” says McElroy. “I can show him my menu, say I need this eggplant or those onions, and he knows exactly what I’m looking for.”
At their scrappy urban farm and scrappy shipping-container restaurant, the two share an up-by-their-bootstraps, DIY ethos. As one grows and prospers, so does the other. In May, Garza helped McElroy build a garden on Federalist’s roof so the chef can harvest herbs and tomatoes this summer. Garza hopes to buy some land and start his own farm in the next year or so. McElroy promises to follow. “I’ll use Antonio as long as I’m a chef in town,” he says
Sturgeon farmer Michael Passmore (left) and Kelly McCown on a pond at Passmore Ranch
When Sloughhouse sturgeon farmer Michael Passmore first tried marketing his fish to local restaurants, he was, by his own admission, naive. Randall Selland, owner of The Kitchen, had discovered Passmore selling live sturgeon at the Sunday farmers market under the freeway downtown and bought the fish for his high-end demonstration-dinner restaurant. “I thought all chefs would be like Randall,” Passmore recalls.
Instead, they recoiled from the prehistoric-looking fish. One day, discouraged after a string of unsuccessful sales calls, Passmore slumped in a chair at Selland’s downtown restaurant, Ella. Head chef Kelly McCown joined him for a beer.
McCown, who’d earlier made a name for himself at Martini House in St. Helena, advised Passmore to set his sights beyond Sacramento and gave him a list of chefs in Napa. Passmore ended up selling his sturgeon to Meadowood’s Christopher Kostow, a James Beard Award winner with three Michelin stars under his belt. With Kostow’s stamp of approval, says McCown, “Michael was in the club.”
Within a few years, Passmore Ranch sturgeon was being served in some of the country’s finest restaurants, many of them Michelin-starred: The French Laundry (Napa), Benu and SPQR (San Francisco), Nico and The Publican (Chicago), Rick Moonen’s RM Seafood (Las Vegas). Meanwhile, top Sacramento chefs like Kru’s Billy Ngo also started sourcing sturgeon from Passmore.
In the process, Passmore and McCown became great friends. They discovered shared interests and a similar way of looking at the world. McCown began holding experimental dinners at Passmore Ranch, using it as an incubator where he could try out “wackadoodle” ideas that wouldn’t fly in any restaurant. For one event, the two men spit-roasted a 100-pound sturgeon, MacGyvering a rotisserie in Passmore’s garage. For another dinner, they created an edible tableau resembling a riverbed teeming with whole roasted sturgeon, blanched bass and fried carp. The two now are such good friends that when McCown moved back to town recently to help open Randall Selland’s upcoming Italian restaurant OBO, he bunked at Passmore Ranch.
McCown may have pointed his friend in the right direction, but he gives all the credit to Passmore. “Michael built his business,” he says. “I take pleasure in the fruits of his labors.”
When it comes to getting produce from farmer Susan Hanks, chef Aimal Formoli doesn’t want much input. “I’ve begged him to tell me what he wants,” says Hanks, owner of Hanks Hens and All Things Good in Rio Linda. He refuses. He’s happy to receive a surprise delivery like those loquats. “Don’t tell me,” he says to her. “Just do it.”
Hanks runs what she calls a “whole farm” on 2 acres, raising egg-laying chickens and growing tomatoes, beets, peppers, squash, sunchokes, herbs, mandarins, nectarines, pears and more. She’s known for her pristine produce, which she harvests and delivers the same day to Formoli’s Bistro and other local restaurants.
Once a professional photographer, Hanks turned to farming in midlife, but she still sees herself as an artist. To get a sense of what Formoli might want for his restaurant, she periodically eats at his bistro, sitting at the counter so she can watch the cooks at work. Once, she delighted in watching them roll out sheets of pasta dough studded with whole sage leaves she’d supplied. This summer she’s growing dent corn, which she’ll later grind into polenta for Formoli. (“Polenta works with his palate,” she notes.)
Formoli is happy to leave the growing decisions to Hanks. “Whatever she decides to bring,” he says, “we’ll take. She’s the expert.”
All summer long, Heidi Watanabe delivers tomatoes to Michael Thiemann at Mother.
At her tomato farm in West Sac, Heidi Watanabe maintains an open-door policy for chefs. She works with a lot of them, supplying produce to just about every notable restaurant in Sacramento. Ella. Kru. Grange. Esquire Grill. Mulvaney’s B&L. The Firehouse. Lucca. Biba. The Waterboy.
And Mother, Michael Thiemann’s vegetarian tour de force on K Street. Thiemann likes knowing he can go out to the farm whenever he wants. He doesn’t buy only tomatoes from Watanabe Farms. (Watanabe and her husband Clark grow more than 40 varieties on 7 acres.) He’ll take anything she’s got, even the wild stuff growing with abandon on the property’s edges: miner’s lettuce, chickweed, wild radish and arugula, wild blackberries.
Thiemann worked with Watanabe years ago as a sous chef at Mason’s and later as executive chef at Ella. She supplied the tomatoes for his wedding. Over time, their relationship deepened and evolved. In the early days, Thiemann says, “It was more about what I wanted. I was trying to dictate. I’d say I want a vegetable that’s 4 inches long. Bullshit like that.”
Watanabe sat him down with a seed catalog and broke down the economics of farming. Chefs, she told him, can’t skim off the cream and leave the rest for the farmer to eat. He got it. Now, he buys whatever she grows. “It’s a lot harder on their end,” he explains. “Farming is no joke.”
She personally delivers to restaurants, driving the truck herself and often working until 10 or 11 p.m. Thiemann loves when she brings her products in through Mother’s front door and unloads them in front of his diners. “Looks cool, huh?” she once said to Thiemann with a grin.
If basil will be ready for picking in a week, Watanabe gives Thiemann a heads-up so he can start thinking about ways to use it. He gets excited at the prospect of anything new. When Watanabe had a bumper crop of squash, he used it promiscuously—in an avocado-and-squash salad, squash-and-potato latkes, battered squash blossoms, a fried squash sandwich. “The nice thing about Mike is, he never complains,” says Watanabe.
That openness makes her more than willing to collaborate. Last year, Thiemann asked her to grow Jimmy Nardello peppers. She did. This year, she tripled her planting of the peppers.
“He’s not a customer,” Watanabe says of Thiemann. “He’s more than a customer. I don’t know a good word. He definitely has input.”
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Rent-a-chicken comes to California – From CBS-13, Sacramento
A farm in Davis has started a new program allowing people to rent chickens to get a first-timer’s taste of backyard chicken farming.
For those still trying to find a place in the pecking order of backyard chicken farming, this is for you. Flyway Farm in Davis has hatched a new idea where you can rent a hen and try before you buy—in case you chicken out.
MORE INFO: Rent-a-Chicken Sacramento
“If you have a landlord that maybe wants you to prove that having chickens isn’t disruptive, you can do that, too,” said Linda Easton. “You can see how your dogs are going to get along with the chickens, how your kids are going to get along with your chickens; so there are a lot of good reasons to rent.”
Easton says for about $75 a month, you can rent the hens along with all the feed and supplies you’ll need, as well as a hand-built coop on wheels.
“This space is just big enough for them to stay cool and protected in the summertime but also its small enough so they can use their body heat to stay warm in the wintertime, even on the coldest night,” she said.
The coop is designed to keep predators and the curious neighbor’s dog away, so the hens can lay about a dozen eggs a week.
“Fresh pasture raised eggs are actually more nutritious for you than the store-bought eggs,” she said. “They have a higher level of Omega-3s, lower cholesterol.”
Easton says raising backyard chickens isn’t necessarily easy and they do come with responsibilities.
“You do need to check on them every day,” she said.
But Flyway Farm will give the basic training you’ll need to put all your eggs in one basket.
“The work you put into it is definitely worth it especially when you get those fabulous eggs and you have these pets that are a lot of fun,” she said.
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The Sutter Peach

CDFA Undersecretary Jim Houston this week at the Lomo Station peach orchard in Live Oak, in Sutter County. California is the largest peach producing state in the country, and Sutter County alone, with production of more than 184,000 tons at a value of nearly $70 million, out-produces the second and third ranking states, South Carolina and Georgia. So the time has come to start talking about “the Sutter Peach.”
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California State Climatologist: Do Not Count on El Nino to end drought
State Climatologist Michael Anderson issued the following statement on potential El Niño conditions:
“California cannot count on potential El Niño conditions to halt or reverse drought conditions. Historical weather data shows us that at best, there is a 50/50 chance of having a wetter winter. Unfortunately, due to shifting climate patterns, we cannot even be that sure.”
Additional background:
The current drought has resulted in observations of new, record-high temperatures and record low snowpack for California. Five of the lowest 10 snowpacks on record have occurred in the last decade, including the past four years. The seasonal snowpack is a key element to California’s water resources management, modulating winter precipitation into spring runoff for beneficial use through the dry summer.
As California heads into a new water year (October 1 to September 30) with a potential fifth year of drought and expectations of El Niño impacts in play during the winter, questions mount on what can be expected of winter temperatures, precipitation and snowpack for California.
Unfortunately, a historical look at past years with similar El Niño conditions as currently forecasted provide little guidance as to what California might expect this winter. Of the seven years since 1950 with similar ENSO signals (1958, 1966, 1973, 1983, 1988, 1992, and 1998) three were wet years, one was average and three were dry (with water year 1992 perpetuating a drought). Past years were cooler than the temperatures we are experiencing now which will impact the rain/snow boundary for any storms that materialize this winter.
For more detail and information on the unpredictable nature of the El Niño phenomenon, visit: http://water.ca.gov/waterconditions/docs/Drought_ENSO_handout4.pdf.
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